Updated estimate of the duration of the meningo-encephalitic stage in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis

被引：16

作者：

Checchi F. ^{[1
]}

Funk S. ^{[2
]}

Chandramohan D. ^{[1
]}

Haydon D.T. ^{[3
]}

Chappuis F. ^{[4
,5
]}

机构：

[1] Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London

[2] Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London

[3] College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, University Avenue, Glasgow

[4] Operational Centre Geneva, Médecins Sans Frontières, 78 Rue de Lausanne, Geneva

[5] Division of International and Humanitarian Medicine, Geneva University Hospitals, University of Geneva, rue Gabrielle-Perret-Gentil 4, Geneva

来源：

BMC Research Notes | / 8卷 / 1期

基金：

英国医学研究理事会;

关键词：

Diagnostic algorithm; Duration of infection; Endemic equilibrium; Mathematical model; Screening coverage; Sleeping sickness; Trypanosoma brucei gambiense;

D O I：

10.1186/s13104-015-1244-3

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

Background: The duration of the stages of HAT is an important factor in epidemiological studies and intervention planning. Previously, we published estimates of the duration of the haemo-lymphatic stage 1 and meningo-encephalitic stage 2 of the gambiense form of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), in the absence of treatment. Here we revise the estimate of stage 2 duration, computed based on data from Uganda and South Sudan, by adjusting observed infection prevalence for incomplete case detection coverage and diagnostic inaccuracy. Findings: The revised best estimate for the mean duration of stage 2 is 252 days (95% CI 171-399), about half of our initial best estimate, giving a total mean duration of untreated gambiense HAT infection of approximately 2 years and 2 months. Conclusions: Our new estimate provides improved information on the transmission dynamics of this neglected tropical disease in Uganda and South Sudan. We stress that there remains considerable variability around the estimated mean values, and that one must be cautious in applying these results to other foci. © 2015 Checchi et al.

引用

共 7 条

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[2]

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[3]

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[7]

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