Impact of Preoperative CEA Uptrend on Survival Outcomes in Patients with Colorectal Liver Metastasis After Hepatectomy

Background Preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) has been reported as a prognostic factor in patients with colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) after hepatectomy. However, the impact of a preoperative "CEA uptrend" on prognosis after hepatectomy in these patients remains unknown. This study assessed the impact of CEA uptrend on prognosis in patients undergoing hepatectomy for CRLM. Methods Consecutive patients with CRLM who underwent hepatectomy between 2009 and 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients with CRLM for whom CEA was measured both around 1 month before (CEA-1m) and within 3 days (CEA-3d) before hepatectomy were enrolled. A CEA-3d higher than both the upper limit of normal (5 ng/ml) and CEA-1m was defined as a CEA uptrend. Results Study participants comprised 212 patients with CRLM. Of these, 88 patients (41.5%) showed a CEA uptrend. CEA uptrend indicated better discriminatory ability (corrected Akaike information criteria, 733.72) and homogeneity (likelihood ratio chi-square value, 18.80) than CEA-3d or CEA-1m. Patients with CEA uptrend showed poorer overall survival than those without CEA uptrend (p < 0.001). After adjusting for known prognostic factors, the prognostic significance of CEA uptrend retained (hazard ratio 2.63, 95% confidence interval 1.63-4.26, p < 0.001). In subgroup analyses, the prognostic significance of CEA uptrend was retained irrespective of the status of RAS mutation or response to preoperative chemotherapy. Conclusions CEA uptrend offers better prediction of survival outcomes than conventional CEA measurements in patients undergoing hepatectomy for CRLM.