Quantifying and analyzing the impact assessment on land use change of urban growth using a timeline

Land use change occurs by altering natural landscape to manmade built environment. Rapid urban growth is the main factor for land use change at global level. Addis Ababa is one of the recent rapidly growing urban areas in Africa. Since 1983, the population has increased by nearly three times. However, the spatial expansion of the urban area has been much greater with urban sprawl, informal settlement, industry, condominium housing, and real estate development. The demand for urban land has been increasing at alarming rate both by city government, investors, and its residents. The city is primate and the population nine times the second largest city in the country. This study focused on quantifying and analyzing impact assessment of urban growth on land use change from 1986 to 2019. The study assessed the major change in extent and determinants of land use change through 33 years (1986–2019) and future growth scenario the next 30 years from 2019 to 2049. This study used Landsat image, base map of 1986, 1998, 2008, and 2019, to analyze built-up growth and land use change. Observation and interview have also taken to explore more on major urban growth and land use change driving factor from concerned bodies. The last, land use efficiency method was applied to measure land consumption rate and population growth rate. The result showed that in 1986, 1998, 2008, and 2019, built-up covered 21.83%, 42.31%, 59.42%, and 81.20% respectively. This shows that the agriculture and open space were rapidly changed to built-up by 32,486.67 hectares for housing, manufacturing, and infrastructure development. The result from concerned bodies has portrayed that the key determinants for urban land use change in the city were population growth at 4.2% per annum. Government led condominium housing, real estate development, and industrial development expansion including informal settlement has been rapidly reducing agriculture and open space through time. Therefore, unconventional planning approach could be exercised based on community interest for affordable high-rise building. Moreover, disseminate or decentralize industries beyond capital city in regional capital to reduce migration rate and rapid change of urban land use by creating employment opportunity and urban-urban linkage in the reginal capital rather than the capital city.