Seasonality and Outbreaks in West Nile Virus Infection

被引：0

作者：

Gustavo Cruz-Pacheco

Lourdes Esteva

Cristobal Vargas

机构：

[1] UNAM,IIMAS

[2] UNAM,Departamento de Matemáticas, Facultad de Ciencias

[3] CINVESTAV–IPN,Departamento de Control Automático

来源：

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology | 2009年 / 71卷

关键词：

Arbovirus; West Nile Virus; Seasonality; Outbreak; Oscillations; Parametric resonance;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

In this paper we analyze the impact of seasonal variations on the dynamics of West Nile Virus infection. We are interested in the generation of new epidemic peaks starting from an endemic state. In many cases, the oscillations generated by seasonality in the dynamics of the infection are too small to be observable. The interplay of this seasonality with the epidemic oscillations can generate new outbreaks starting from the endemic state through a mechanism of parametric resonance. Using experimental data we present specific cases where this phenomenon is numerically observed.

引用

页码：1378 / 1393

页数：15

共 55 条

[1]

Aron J.L.(1984)Seasonality and period-doubling bifurcations in an epidemic model J. Theor. Biol. 110 665-679

[2]

Schwartz I.B.(2007)Approximation of the basic reproductive number Bull. Math. Biol. 69 1067-1091

[3]

Bacaer N.(2006) for vector-borne diseases with a periodic vector population J. Math. Biol. 53 421-436

[4]

Bacaer N.(2002)The epidemic threshold of vector-borne diseases with seasonality Lancet Infect. Dis. 2 519-529

[5]

Guernaoi S.(1999)West Nile Virus Morb. Mort. Wkly. Rep. 48 890-892

[6]

Campbell L.G.(2005)Update: West Nile-like viral encephalitis, New York, 1999 Math. Comput. Simul. 70 149-158

[7]

Martin A.A.(2006)An approximate threshold condition for non-autonomous system: An application to a vector-borne infection Bull. Math. Biol. 68 2263-2282

[8]

Lanciotti R.S.(2005)Threshold condition for a non-autonomous epidemic system describing the population dynamics of dengue Bull. Math. Biol. 67 1157-1172

[9]

Gubler D.J.(1976)Modelling the dynamics of West Nile Virus Lect. Notes Biomath. 11 1-15

[10]

Coutinho F.A.B.(1974)The incidence of infectious diseases under the influence of seasonal fluctuations J. Med. Entomol. 11 95-104

← 1 2 3 4 5 6 →