The impact of emissions and climate change on future ozone concentrations in the USA

被引:0
作者
Mojtaba Moghani
Cristina L. Archer
机构
[1] University of Delaware,Interdisciplinary Science and Engineering Laboratory (ISELab)
来源
Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health | 2020年 / 13卷
关键词
Air pollution; Ozone; Air quality modeling; Climate change; Emissions;
D O I
暂无
中图分类号
学科分类号
摘要
The potential impacts of climate change and future anthropogenic emissions on ozone levels in the USA are examined by linking global climate models to regional meteorological and air quality models during 3-year summer periods over the nine climate regions of the continental United States for three cases: (1) using 2016 meteorology and emissions (CTRL), (2) using 2050 meteorology and 2016 emissions (CASE1), and (3) using 2050 meteorology and 2050 emissions (CASE2). As climate change alone is expected to worsen ozone pollution and emission reductions are expected to reduce ozone concentrations, in this paper, the non-linear response of future ozone levels to both meteorological conditions and emissions was studied. The results show the well-known positive ozone correlation with surface temperature and negative ozone correlation with humidity in all regions. Climate change alone will increase future MDA8 ozone in the USA by 3.6 ppb. With climate change and policy intervention based on RCP 8.5, ozone levels will decrease 7.2 ppb on average for all climate regions in the USA. Furthermore, while climate change alone will double the number of stations violating the current National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone in 2050, when policies are in effect, this number was reduced to 21 stations. The number of high-ozone days will also increase in climate change only case in all regions with an average of 5.7 extra high-ozone days which confirms previous studies. The results show that even with high-ozone precursor reductions, the ozone levels will still violate the current national ozone standard. Therefore, in order to meet the current ozone standard by 2050, more stringent climate and air pollution control policies for most regions in the USA are needed.
引用
收藏
页码:1465 / 1476
页数:11
相关论文
共 208 条
[1]  
Archer CL(2019)Global warming will aggravate ozone pollution in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic J Appl Meteorol Climatol 58 1267-1278
[2]  
Brodie JF(2018)Air-temperature dependence of the ozone generation rate in the surface air layer Atmos Ocean Opt 31 187-196
[3]  
Rauscher SA(2007)The effects of meteorology on ozone in urban areas and their use in assessing ozone trends Atmos Environ 41 7127-7137
[4]  
Belan BD(2005)Nonlinear response of ozone to emissions: source apportionment and sensitivity analysis Environ Sci Technol 39 6739-6748
[5]  
Savkin DE(2017)Future-year ozone prediction for the United States using updated models and inputs J Air Waste Manag Assoc 67 938-948
[6]  
Tolmachev GN(2013)Impacts of climate change on surface ozone and intercontinental ozone pollution: a multi-model study J Geophys Res Atmos 118 3744-3763
[7]  
Camalier L(2015)Air quality and climate connections J Air Waste Manag Assoc 65 645-685
[8]  
Cox W(2015)Positive but variable sensitivity of august surface ozone to large-scale warming in the southeast United States Nat Clim Chang 5 454-458
[9]  
Dolwick P(2013)The impact of emission and climate change on ozone in the United States under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) Atmos Chem Phys 13 9607-9621
[10]  
Cohan DS(2019)Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century Geosci Model Dev 12 1443-1475