Factors affecting survival of seedling of Afzelia africana, a threatened tropical timber species in West Africa

Understanding abiotic and biotic factors affecting the survival of seedlings of threatened species such as Afzelia africana is fundamental for restoration and sustainable management purposes. This study used seedling individual-level morphological data and plot-level data to assess the effect of abiotic (season, elevation, soil type and terrain slope) and biotic (seedling initial density, basal diameter, height and number of leaves, insect and fungal infection, insect herbivory, mammal herbivory, vegetation type, adult conspecific density and diameter, and heterospecific density and diameter) factors on the survival probability (at individual level) and survival rate (at plot level) of seedlings of A. africana in the Pendjari Biosphere Reserve. Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMMs) were used for data analyses. At individual level, we found that the survival probability of A. africana seedlings increased with initial height, but decreased from wet to dry season. At plot level, the survival rate of A. africana seedlings also decreased from the wet season (0.72 ± 0.05) to the dry season (0.18 ± 0.04) and was inversely proportional to seedling basal diameter (P = 0.024) and density of conspecific adults (P = 0.016). There were also positive effects of seedling initial height (P = 0.026) and mean diameter of conspecific adults (P = 0.037) on survival rate. Among abiotic factors, only terrain slope showed significant and negative effect (P = 0.028) on the survival rate, suggesting higher survival rate on flat terrain. Our findings suggest that sustainably managing seedlings of A. africana would require accounting for conspecific neighboring effect, terrain slope and season-specific actions. Practical aspects of these factors were further discussed.