A review of stochastic earthquake ground motion prediction equations for stable regions

Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs), which give estimates of ground motion parameters for any given earthquake scenario expressed in terms of magnitude, distance and site class, have been an essential element in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for development of seismic hazard maps. Traditionally, most designers of built infrastructure do not become involved directly with their use although seismic hazard maps are being used in the design of structures. In pursuing site-specific seismic design of a civil engineering structure, it is necessary of engineers to make direct use of GMPEs to construct the conditional mean spectra, as this forms part of the advanced design process. This article is written for engineers who have interests in going for site-specific seismic design in a stable (low-to-moderate seismicity) tectonic environment including countries like Australia, most part of India, Malaysia and Western Europe. The development of stochastic GMPEs in a stable region involves seismological modelling and stochastic simulations (leading to the development of stochastic GMPEs) which have been evolving for almost half a century. This article aims at presenting the state-of-art review for this specialised field of technology. The targeted readers are engineers who have no prior knowledge in engineering seismology. Summarising decades long of research and development in one article serves the purpose of facilitating the uptake of GMPEs and site-specific seismic design by engineering practitioners. Thus, many seismological phenomena are explained in engineering terms. This review article should also be beneficial to researchers who are engaged into investigation into the seismic performance of structures.