Projections of future anthropogenic climate change in Switzerland using multi-GCM modeling

Global climate change has become a serious ecological concern, particularly in mountainous areas. Therefore, identifying and assessing future climate change are critical for appropriate environmental planning, adaptation, and mitigation. In this study, future projections of anthropogenic climate change for temperature and precipitation in Switzerland during the period 2025–2099 were generated using two general circulation models, CanESM2 and HadCM3, based on two special report emission scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2, and three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) by employing the Statistical Downscaling Method (SDSM). All model-performance measures show good ability in simulating temperature and reasonable ability in simulating precipitation during model calibration (1961–2000) and validation (2001–2020). The generated results exhibit a consistent increase in both variables under all emission scenarios. The greater change in average temperature was predicted to rise between 0.12 and 3.76 °C (RCP8.5), while mean annual precipitation is projected to increase between 48.1 and 398.7 mm (A2) at the most stations by the end of the century. Based on climate model simulations, Switzerland will experience substantial further alteration. Summers are likely to be drier and hotter, while colder seasons will receive more precipitation. This rise will affect water resources, since increasing precipitation and rapid glacier melt will exacerbate the risk of flooding. HadCM3 shows higher precipitation changes, while a greater temperature increase is expected according to CanESM2 GSM model across Switzerland.