Simulating the impact of climate change on maize production in Ethiopia, East Africa

Background: Climate change is expected to significantly impact agricultural production across Africa. While a number of studies assessed this impact in semi-arid southern Africa, or tropical West Africa, only a limited number took interest in the mountainous and climatically varying Ethiopia of eastern Africa. This study assesses the impact of climate change on maize production in three representative sites of maize growing areas in Ethiopia. The assessment relies on the DSSAT crop model simulation of maize under current climate and future projections (19 Global Climate Models and 2 Representative Concentration Pathways). The period 1980–2010 was used to represent the baseline climate, while future climate projections cover three periods; near term (2010–2039), mid-century (2040–2069) and end-of-century (2070–2099). Climate, soil and crop management data were collected for the study sites representing the maize growing areas in the country. Results: Results show that maize yields will decrease by up to 43 and 24% by the end of the century at Bako and Melkassa stations, respectively, while simulated maize yield in Hawassa show an increase of 51%. On the one hand, rainfall variability and rising temperatures are determining factors explaining yield decrease in Bako and Melkassa, while projected rainfall increase in Hawassa explain simulated yield increases. Conclusion: The terrain and climate high variability of Ethiopia is emphasizing the extremely different responses of current agricultural systems to climate change. Though adaptation approached can address some negative impacts, and in some case can take advantage of changes, this study reveals that dedicated local knowledge is necessary for national and regional decision makers to respond with local relevance to a global exposure, in order to face food security challenges. © The Author(s) 2018.