On estimating the predictability of human mobility: the role of routine

Given the difficulties in predicting human behavior, one may wish to establish bounds on our ability to accurately perform such predictions. In the case of mobility-related behavior, there exists a fundamental technique to estimate the predictability of an individual’s mobility, as expressed in a given dataset. Although useful in several scenarios, this technique focused on human mobility as a monolithic entity, which poses challenges to understanding different types of behavior that may be hard to predict. In this paper, we propose to study predictability in terms of two components of human mobility: routine and novelty, where routine is related to preferential returns, and novelty is related to exploration. Viewing one’s mobility in terms of these two components allows us to identify important patterns about the predictability of one’s mobility.