Evaluation and dynamic prediction of ecological security from the perspective of sustainable development: a case study of Shaanxi Province, China

被引:0
作者
Shuai Chen
Shunbo Yao
机构
[1] Northwest A & F University,College of Economics and Management
来源
Environmental Science and Pollution Research | 2022年 / 29卷
关键词
Ecological security; DPSR model; Time and space differences; Early warning; Sustainable development;
D O I
暂无
中图分类号
学科分类号
摘要
How to measure the overall level of regional social economy, resources, and environment and how to grasp the coordinated development between them has become a hot issue. In this paper, the driving force-pressure-state-response (DPSR) model is used to build an ecological security index (ESI) system to measure the overall ecological security level of social economy, resources, and environment. In addition, dynamic nonlinear auto regressive (NAR) neural network is used to predict the ESI level to achieve the purpose of early warning. First, the results show that the weight of the employment rate, the proportion of students in colleges, and the per capita consumption level are relatively high, which play an important role for the ecological security level of Shaanxi Province. Second, Xi’an City has been the best level in ecological security level, the ecological security of Southwest Shaanxi is relatively good, which is related to its economic development and comparative advantage geographical conditions, while the ecological security level of Weinan and Shangluo are poor. Third, the ESI of most cities in Shaanxi Province is maintained at grade III. The ESI in Shaanxi has an upward trend from 2000 to 2006; however, the trend of this increase has not been maintained, and nearly half of the cities in Shaanxi have slightly decreased the ecological security level. Four, the ESI of Xi’an and Hanzhong will remain at a high level in the future, while the ecological security situation of Shangluo, Weinan, and Yulin probably become very poor in the next years.
引用
收藏
页码:42331 / 42346
页数:15
相关论文
共 164 条
[1]  
Aherwar A(2021)Optimal design based on fabricated SiC/B4C/porcelain filled aluminium alloy matrix composite using hybrid AHP/CRITIC-COPRAS Approach SILICON 3 1-13
[2]  
Pruncu CI(2014)Climate extremes and housing rights: a political ecology of impacts, early warning and adaptation constraints in Lagos slum communities Geoforum 55 76-86
[3]  
Mia M(2013)Forecasting hourly global solar radiation using hybrid k-means and nonlinear autoregressive neural network models Energy Convers Manag 75 561-569
[4]  
Ajibade I(2011)Early warnings of regime shifts:a whole-ecosystem experiment Science 332 1079-1082
[5]  
Mcbean G(2020)Ecological security early-warning in central Yunnan Province, China, based on the gray model Ecol Indic 111 106000-9
[6]  
Benmouiza K(2017)Method for solving LASSO problem based on multidimensional weight Adv Artif Intell 2017 1-1136
[7]  
Cheknane A(2012)Ecological Environment evaluation of Liaohe Delta wetland based on PSR model Adv Mater Res 1793 1133-1042
[8]  
Carpenter SR(2005)Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using the wavelet transform and ARIMA models IEEE Trans Power Syst 20 1035-121
[9]  
Cole JJ(2016)Environmental conflict analysis using an integrated grey clustering and entropy-weight method: a case study of a mining project in Peru Environ Model Softw 77 108-770
[10]  
Pace ML(1995)Determining objective weights in multiple criteria problems: the critic method Comput Oper Res 22 763-795