Shrinkage of Mt. Bogda glaciers of eastern Tian Shan in Central Asia during 1962–2006

Many small mountain glaciers have been reported undergoing strong shrinkage, and it is therefore important to understand how they respond to climate change. The availability of topographic maps from 1962, Landsat TM imagery from 1990 and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Radiometer) imagery from 2006 and field investigation of some glaciers allow a comprehensive analysis of glacier change based on glacier size and topography on Mt. Bogda. Results include: (1) an overall loss of a glacierized area by 31.18±0.31 km2 or 21.6% from 1962 to 2006, (2) a marked dependence of glacier area shrinkage on initial size, with smaller glaciers experiencing higher shrinkage levels, (3) the disappearance of 12 small glaciers, (4) a striking difference in area loss between the southern and northern slopes of 25% and 17%, respectively. A subset of the investigated glaciers shows that the area 57.45±0.73 km2 in 1962 reduced to 54.79±0.561 km2 in 1990 and 48.88±0.49 km2 in 2006, with a relative area reduction of 4.6% during 1962–1990, and 10.8% during 1990–2006. The corresponding volume waste increased from 6.9% to 10.2%. Three reference glaciers were investigated in 1981 and revisited in 2009. Their terminus experienced a marked recession. Meteorological data from stations around Mt. Bogda reveals that glacier shrinkage is correlated with winter warming and an extension of the ablation period. Precipitation on the northwest side of the range shows a marked increase, with a slight increase on the southeast side.