Catching Up in Crime? Long-Term Processes of Recidivism Across Gender

Purpose: While males are heavily overrepresented in almost every crime category that may lead to a conviction, there is ambiguity in the predictive value of gender on recidivism patterns over the life course. By using a complete Swedish birth cohort born in 1965, the present study is able to examine the long-term recidivism patterns in a substantial number of convicted males (N = 27,071) and females (N = 7531) followed up to age 47. The aims are to (1) examine the extent to which long-term recidivism patterns are similar in males and females and (2) assess the predictive power of gender on recidivism as these males and females accumulate additional convictions over the course of their lives. Methods: Repeated event history data of criminal convictions is analyzed utilizing detailed information on convictions. Results: The analysis shows that the decline over time in the risk for recidivism, as previously demonstrated in male samples, is replicated for females. In connection with the first and second convictions, males had a stronger tendency toward recidivism than females, but the recidivism risk among females becomes increasingly similar to that found among males as convictions accumulate over the life course. The study also shows that being convicted of a drug offense is a more pronounced predictor of recidivism among females than among males. Conclusions: The results suggest that the predictive value of gender for recidivism is conditional on criminal history. The results are discussed in the light of developmental and life course theories of continuity in crime. © 2016, Springer International Publishing AG.