Estimation methods for the LRD parameter under a change in the mean

被引:0
作者
Aeneas Rooch
Ieva Zelo
Roland Fried
机构
[1] Ruhr-Universität Bochum,Fakultät für Mathematik
[2] Technische Universität Dortmund,Fakultät für Statistik
来源
Statistical Papers | 2019年 / 60卷
关键词
Hurst parameter; Estimation; Jump; Long-range dependence; Long memory; Change-point problems; 62M10;
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学科分类号
摘要
When analyzing time series which are supposed to exhibit long-range dependence (LRD), a basic issue is the estimation of the LRD parameter, for example the Hurst parameter H∈(1/2,1)\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$H \in (1/2, 1)$$\end{document}. Conventional estimators of H easily lead to spurious detection of long memory if the time series includes a shift in the mean. This defect has fatal consequences in change-point problems: Tests for a level shift rely on H, which needs to be estimated before, but this estimation is distorted by the level shift. We investigate two blocks approaches to adapt estimators of H to the case that the time series includes a jump and compare them with other natural techniques as well as with estimators based on the trimming idea via simulations. These techniques improve the estimation of H if there is indeed a change in the mean. In the absence of such a change, the methods little affect the usual estimation. As adaption, we recommend an overlapping blocks approach: If one uses a consistent estimator, the adaption will preserve this property and it performs well in simulations.
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页码:313 / 347
页数:34
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