The National Front Vote and Turnout in the French Presidential Elections

被引：0
作者：
Antoine Auberger
机构：
[1] CES-LAEP,
[2] University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne,undefined
[3] Maison des sciences économiques,undefined
[4] 106-112 bld de l'Hôpital,undefined
[5] University of Paris 2 Panthéon-Assas,undefined
来源：
French Politics | 2008年 / 6卷 / 1期
关键词：
economic voting; election forecasting; National Front; turnout; French presidential elections;
D O I：
10.1057/palgrave.fp.8200135
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
The purpose of this short paper is to build and estimate a model that explains and forecasts the vote received by the National Front at the first round of the French presidential elections (1988–2002 and 1988–2007) with local economic conditions and turnout. The model has been accurate in forecasting the elections of the past and we make ex post and ex ante forecasts taking into account the 2007 French presidential election.
引用
收藏
页码：94 / 100
页数：6
相关论文
共 17 条
  • [1] Auberger A(2004)Les fonctions de vote: un survol de la littérature l'Actualité Économique — Revue d'Analyse Économique 80 95-107
  • [2] Auberger A(2005)Forecasts of the 2004 French European election Swiss Political Science Review 11 61-78
  • [3] Auberger A(2005)The influence of local and national economic conditions on French legislative elections Public Choice 125 363-383
  • [4] Dubois E(1995)La conjoncture économique, la popularité politique et les perspectives électorales dans la France d'aujourd'hui Journal de la société de statistique de Paris 136 47-70
  • [5] Courbis R(2007)Les déterminants économiques du vote. 1976–2006: trente ans de fonctions de vote en France Revue d'Economie Politique 117 243-270
  • [6] Dubois E(2000)The impact of turnout on electoral choices: an econometric analysis of the French case Electoral Studies 19 393-412
  • [7] Fauvelle-Aymar C(2003)A Le Pen vote function for the 2002 presidential election: a way to reduce uncertainty French Politics 1 247-251
  • [8] Lafay JD(2003)Reordering the French election calendar: forecasting the consequences for 2002 European Journal of Political Research 42 425-440
  • [9] Servais M(1991)French national elections: political economic forecasts European Journal of Political Economy 7 487-496
  • [10] Jérôme B(1995)Les déterminants économiques de la popularité politique et la prévision électorale: un bilan général des résultats économétriques Journal de la Société de Statistique de Paris 136 29-45
12