Impacts of land use and climate change on runoff in the Shaying River Basin based on SWAT model

In the past decades, land use pattern and climate conditions of Shaying River Basin have changed significantly, which will inevitably have a significant impact on the river hydrological situation. Therefore, in order to study the response of the hydrological cycle process of the Shaying River Basin to land use and climate changes, this paper constructed the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model of the Shaying River Basin based on historical meteorological and hydrological data, and conducted parameter calibration and model verification to quantitatively explore the response of the runoff of the Shaying River Basin to different land use and climate change scenarios. The results showed that: (1) In calibration and verification periods, the determination coefficients (R2) were 0.80 and 0.83 respectively, the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients (NSE) were 0.77 and 0.73 respectively, and the percentage deviation (PBIAS) was within ± 25%. (2) Setting different combinations of land use and climate changes into four scenarios S1, S2, S3, and S4, the simulated runoff depths were 257 mm, 298 mm, 259 mm, and 301 mm, respectively. The impacts of land use and climate changes on the annual runoff of Shaying River were 0.9% and 16.1% respectively. (3) In the scenario with 4 °C reduction and 20% precipitation increase and scenario 4 °C increase and 20% precipitation reduction, the maximum and minimum annual runoff were increased by 81.9% and decreased by 70.9% compared with the baseline period, respectively. (4) Under the seven scenarios, the precipitation, temperature and runoff in the middle and late 21st century showed an increasing trend, and precipitation will be the main controlling factor affecting runoff. The annual runoff depth showed an increasing trend, and the change of runoff depth in the lower reaches of the basin will be the most obvious.