Potential impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean–Western Pacific on the variability of typhoon landfall on the China coast

The landfall activity of typhoons (TYs) along the coast of China during July–August–September (JAS) shows significant interdecadal variation during 1965–2010. We identify three sub-periods of TY landfall activity in JAS along the China coast in this period, with more TY landfall during 1965–1978 (Period I) and 1998–2010 (Period III), and less during 1982–1995 (Period II). We find that the interdecadal variation might be related to the combined effects of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase changes and sea surface temperature (SST) variation in the tropical Indian Ocean and Western Pacific (IO–WP). During the negative PDO phase in Periods I and III, a cyclonic anomaly is located in the western North Pacific (WNP), inducing easterly flow in its northern part, which favors TY landfall along the eastern China coast. Warm SST anomalies over the tropical IO–WP during Period III induce an anomalous anticyclonic circulation in the WNP through both the Gill-pattern response to the warm SST in the tropical IO and the anomalous meridional circulation induced by the warm SST in the tropical WNP. As a result, the northern South China Sea and WNP (10°–20° N) are dominated by southeasterly flow, which favors TYs making landfall on both the southern and eastern China coast. With both landfalling-favorable conditions satisfied, there are significantly more TYs making landfall along the China coast during Period III than during Period I, which shows cool SST anomalies in the tropical IO–WP.