Simulating the Impacts of Climate Change on Sugarcane in Diverse Agro-climatic Zones of Northern India Using CANEGRO-Sugarcane Model

CANEGRO-Sugarcane model was used to assess the impact of climate change on sugarcane in different combinations of elevated temperature and CO2 concentrations. Additionally, we used dynamically downscaled bias-corrected regional climate model (RCM) data using RegCM4 under RCP4.5 scenario (2040–2060) to project the future change in sugarcane stalk fresh mass (SFM) and sucrose mass (SM). The results showed an increase in temperature, rainfall and solar radiation in the future projections at the study site. The SFM and SM were found to be vulnerable (3–25% decrease) by increasing temperature (1–4 °C), however, a higher concentration (2–14% increase) was observed for both SFM and SM under elevated CO2 levels (450–850 ppm). The combined effect of increased temperature and elevated CO2 had a beneficial effect on SFM but negative on SM (more for rainfed condition). Overall, SFM was projected to increase by 3–39% (rainfed) and 7–47% (irrigated) in 2040–2060 relative to 1971–2000 in diverse agro-climatic zones of the region. Similarly, SM was projected to decrease by 9–69% (rainfed) and 6–37% (irrigated). In general, water stress conditions combined with the projected increase in temperature adversely affected the sugarcane. The findings suggest the development of a efficient water use, heat-tolerant cane variety and improved farm management strategies in the near future to assist the sugar industry and to adapt to the changing climate in northern India. This is required in the greater perspective of decrease in sucrose mass in spite of double-fold increase in CO2.