Forecasting Demand of Emergency Care

被引：73

作者：

Simon Andrew Jones

Mark Patrick Joy

Jon Pearson

机构：

[1] Kingston University,School of Mathematics

[2] Bromley Hospitals NHS Trust,Applied Research Unit

[3] Farnborough Hospital,undefined

[4] Farnborough Common,undefined

来源：

Health Care Management Science | 2002年 / 5卷 / 4期

关键词：

Influenza; Economic Policy; Public Finance; High Volatility; Acute Hospital;

D O I：

10.1023/A:1020390425029

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

This paper describes a model that can forecast the daily number of occupied beds due to emergency admissions in an acute hospital. Out of sample forecasts 32 day days in advance, have an RMS error of 3% of the mean number of beds used for emergency admissions. We find that the number of occupied beds due to emergency admissions is related to both air temperature and PHLS data on influenza like illnesses. We find that a period of high volatility, indicated by GARCH errors, will result in an increase in waiting times in the A&E Department. Furthermore, volatility gives more warning of waiting times in A&E than total bed occupancy.

引用

页码：297 / 305

页数：8

共 24 条

[1]

Bagust A.(1999)Dynamics of bed use in accommodating emergency admissions: Stochastic simulation model The BMJ 319 155-158

[2]

Place M.(1986)Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity Journal of Econometrics 31 307-327

[3]

Posnett J.W.(1997)Effects of air pollution on emergency visits for respiratory illness in Montreal, Quebec American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine 155 568-576

[4]

Bollerslev T.(1982)Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimation of the variance in United Kingdom inflation Econometrica 50 987-1007

[5]

Delfino R.J.(1990)Models for forecasting hospital bed requirements in the acute sector Journal Epidemiological Community Health 44 307-312

[6]

Murphey-Moulten A.M.(1985)Some aspects of modeling operational problems in the National Health Service The Statistician 34 209-214

[7]

Burnett R.T.(1999)Coping with winter bed crisis The BMJ 319 1511-1512

[8]

Becklake M.R.(1990)Price risk in supply equations: An application of GARCH time-series models in the us broiler market Southern Economic Journal 57 230-242

[9]

Engel R.F.(1988)Forecasting the demand on accident and emergency departments in health districts in the Trent region Statistics in Medicine 10 1061-1072

[10]

Farmer R.D.(1997)Ten year follow-up of arima forecasts of attendance at accident and emergency departments in the Trent region Statistics in Medicine 16 2117-2125

← 1 2 3 →