Regional Characteristics of Impact Factors for Energy-Related CO2 Emissions in China, 1997–2010: Evidence from Tests for Threshold Effects Based on the STIRPAT Model

This paper analyses the forces driving energy-related CO2 emissions based on a threshold STIRPAT dynamic model, using Chinese state-level panel data during the period of 1997 to 2010. In addition to investigating the impact of affluence on CO2 emissions, this paper studies channels through which affluence could impact on CO2 emissions across development levels and explores the possibility of reducing CO2 emissions through greater affluence by analysing panels including all regions, high-income regions and low-income regions. A threshold STIRPAT dynamic model further estimates thresholds for the major determinants of CO2 emissions: in the long run, affluence is the most important determinant followed by urban population. Variability of affluence impact on CO2 emissions in high-income regions is explained mostly by trade openness degree, while low-income regions with a higher industrial level are associated with lower CO2 emissions. Different measures should be adopted for CO2 reductions in different regions according to local conditions.