Varroa destructor detection in non-endemic areas

Australia is one of the few countries where Apis mellifera are not infested by the parasitic mite Varroa destructor. In Australia a program called the ‘Sugar Shake Team’ has been implemented to detect an incursion of V. destructor, should it occur. The aim of this paper was to provide an estimate of the probability that V. destructor would be detected by the Sugar Shake Team program if an incursion had actually occurred (surveillance system sensitivity) using a scenario tree modelling approach. A secondary aim was to provide commentary on how surveillance for V. destructor incursions into Australia might be made more effective. Our analyses show that if one apiary in the study area was infested with V. destructor, there was only a 0.47% probability that infestation would be detected by the current program. We conclude that in its current form the Sugar Shake Team program does not provide protection to multi-billion-dollar beekeeping, pollination and agricultural industries in Australia. Surveillance for V. destructor can be made more effective by increasing the coverage and frequency of testing, deployment of additional sentinel hives and the use of sticky boards.