Absolute risk score for stroke, myocardial infarction, and all cardiovascular disease: Japan Arteriosclerosis Longitudinal Study

To develop a risk chart or score that is based on recent data and applicable to the Japanese people, we need a large cohort study representative of the Japanese people without a need for long-term follow-up. The purpose of the present study was to develop a risk scoring system to estimate the 5- and 10-year absolute and cumulative incidence risk of stroke and acute myocardial infarction (AMI), composite outcome of stroke and AMI, and death from all cardiovascular disease (CVD). The cumulative incidence risk ratios were calculated using a multiple Poisson regression model and data from the Japan Arteriosclerosis Longitudinal Study, which included 67,969 men and women aged 40–89 years. An absolute risk scoring system for 5- and 10-year risk was developed. For blood pressure categories, the risk ratios for all outcomes increased from normal blood pressure (systolic blood pressure (SBP) 120–129 mmHg and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) 80–89 mmHg) to grade III hypertension (SBP ≥ 180 and/or DBP ≥ 110) based on the 2014 Guidelines for the Management of Hypertension compared to the reference optimal blood pressure (SBP < 120 and DBP < 80). Grade II (SBP 160–179 and/or DBP 100–109) and III hypertension treated with medication showed a lower risk compared to counterparts without medication. Other risk factors showed reasonable figures. The total of scores for each risk factor indicated the estimated absolute risk for stroke and AMI, the composite outcome of stroke and AMI, and all CVD. This scoring system may contribute to patient education and to the development of strategies for reducing CVD in the population.