A system dynamics-based decision-making tool and strategy optimization simulation of green building development in China

Green building has emerged as a new type of building to mitigate the conflict between the rapid expansion of buildings and the deteriorating ecological environment, thus promoting ecologically sustainable development of building projects. However, the development of green building suffers from issues such as high initial costs and complicated process. In this study, a system dynamics (SD) approach has been used to investigate green building development (GBD) in China. The validity of the GBD-SD model has been verified and further applied to simulate GBD in the city of Wuhan. Three problems in current GBD system of Wuhan have been identified based on analysis of simulated results: (1) slow-paced GBD; (2) imbalanced green building supply and demand; and (3) low overall green level. Furthermore, three strategies have been proposed accordingly to solve those three problems. This study provides a GBD-SD model to comprehensively understand the dynamic relationships between participants in a GBD system and may shed light on sustainable development of green buildings for policy-makers.