Coupled dynamics of urban landscape pattern and socioeconomic drivers in Shenzhen, China

The effects of land use policy and socioeconomic changes on urban landscape dynamics have been increasingly investigated around the world, but our knowledge of the underlying processes of these effects is still inadequate for sustainably managing urban ecosystems. Thus, the main goal of this study was to understand: (1) the changes in urban landscape, population, and economic conditions over a 36-year period, and (2) the coupled dynamics of land use policy, landscape structure, major demographic features, and three kinds of industries in one of the most dazzling modern cities of China—the Shenzhen special economic zone (SEZ). The landscape expansion index was used to explore the developed-land expansion under different land use policies while structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to analyze the relationship among three variables (Land Cover Change or LCC, Economy, and Population). We found that the urban expansion during the four periods (1973–1979, 1979–1995, 1995–2003, and 2003–2009) was not always at the expense of urban vegetation cover. The importance of each socioeconomic driver during the four periods was not consistent over time, with policy shifts as the primary driver. Our SEM showed that Economy played a more important role than Population in driving LCC in the Shenzhen SEZ. Meanwhile, the secondary and tertiary industries had a stronger influence than the primary industry; and the floating population had a greater effect than the registered permanent population.