The influence of temperature and precipitation on the vegetation dynamics of the tropical island of Hainan

Understanding how terrestrial ecosystems respond to climate change can help achieve regional sustainability. The normalized difference vegetation Index (NDVI), which is an important vegetation parameter and ecological index, can directly reflect changes in the ecological environment. Based on meteorological observation data and NDVI monitoring data from 2000 to 2018, we explore the impact of climate change on vegetation on Hainan Island. Firstly, by using Mann–Kendall trend detection together with correlation and partial correlation analysis, we analyze the spatial patterns and trends of the NDVI, annual average temperature, and annual precipitation at grid level and also investigate the spatial relationship between the climatic factors and vegetation. The results show that (1) the ecological conditions on Hainan Island are good and the vegetation trends are positive; (2) the air temperature of Hainan Island has a strong positive effect on the NDVI; and (3) precipitation prevents vegetation growth in the rainy season especially in the central parts of the island. This study focuses on the spatiotemporal characteristics and evolution of vegetation and the influence of climate change on vegetation. Our study provides a scientific basis for achieving regional ecologically sustainable development and valuable evidence related to the impact of climate change on vegetation in tropical island regions.