Geo-spatial perspective of vegetation health evaluation and climate change scenario in India

Vegetation health of any ecosystem and changes in it are vital in global change in ecology and it is delicately linked to climate change. This study evaluated the spatial patterns of significant negative change trend using composite NOAA-AVHRR data time series (1982–2006), long term forest fire point data, invasive hotspot data and predicted climate anomalies data over the different harmonized landcover categories of India. Around 65% of Indian forest shows the trend of negative change. Significant negative change were found to be highest (203,026 km2) over ‘Tropical mixed deciduous and dry deciduous forests’ category, followed by ‘Tropical lowland forests, broadleaved, evergreen’ (81,555 km2) and ‘Evergreen shrubland & regrowth/Abandoned shifting cultivation/Extensive shifting cultivation’ (55,811 km2). Around 85% of Indian biodiversity hotspot showed the negative change. The analysis of forest fire revealed the ‘Tropical mixed deciduous and dry deciduous forests’ retained the highest forest fire percentage (40%). The prediction of temperature anomalies for the year 2030 using RCP 4.5 model showed the increase in the temperature in the range of 0.58–1.32 °C and was found highest in northern part of India. Similarly, the rainfall prediction for the year 2030 showed rainfall deficit in several states of India. The outcomes of the present study would help in prioritization of various vegetation types suffering from anthropogenic and natural disturbances and will guide the policymakers to safeguard, prioritized forest areas for effective conservation, scientific protection and climate change mitigation endeavors.