Driving factors analysis of spatial–temporal evolution of vegetation ecosystem in rocky desertification restoration area of Guizhou Province, China

The investigation of the temporal-spatial characteristics and driving factors of vegetation ecosystem (VE) alterations held significant practical implications for the evaluation of the efficacy of rocky desertification management initiatives and safeguarding the ecological environment in the rocky desertification restoration region of Guizhou. We computed the comprehensive ecological quality index (Q) of vegetation based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and net primary productivity (NPP). Combined with temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, rocky desertification grade, land use, and the time series of various regions being included in national ecological functional zones, we analyzed the spatial–temporal distribution characteristics of VE changes and their response to climate change (CC) and ecological engineering (EE) by using partial derivative analysis method and scenario setting method in rocky desertification restoration areas in Guizhou. Results demonstrated that (1) the average values of NDVI, NPP, and Q all showed a fluctuating upward trend since 2000. Although the VE status of rocky desertification area was obviously worse than that of no rocky desertification area, it has a higher growth rate, especially the growth rates of NDVI, NPP, and Q in severe rocky desertification area were as high as 0.0050 year−1, 9.0733 g C m−2 year−1, and 0.7829 year−1, and the area with high recovery degree accounted for 93.19%, followed by the middle rocky desertification area. (2) CC was the main driving factor for NDVI and Q recovery, and EE was the main driving factor for NPP recovery. The contribution of EE to NPP and Q recovery increased with the increase of rocky desertification, as high as 82.13% and 30.31% in severe rocky desertification area. (3) The more serious the rocky desertification was, the more dependent the vegetation restoration was on ecological engineering, and the more difficult the restoration was. It was urgent to solve the ecological environmental problems. (4) EE played a greater role in the restoration of VE in the early stage of implementation. Its role gradually decreased in the later stages of implementation, while the role of CC increased. We provide a scientific basis for the follow-up treatment of rocky desertification, ecological environment restoration, and ecological protection effectiveness evaluation in Guizhou.