This work reports the results of a geomorphological study on the River Paglia (Tiber basin, Central Italy), to analyse the historical evolution of the riverbed/floodplain system in its lower valley reaches, upstream the confluence of River Tiber. A morphological–sedimentological approach has been used, starting with an historical analysis and a survey of the forms and sediments in the riverbed/alluvial plain system, in order to reconstruct the current evolutionary trend and to identify the causes and processes leading to changes in natural trends. This approach is not in contrast to the hydrologic–hydraulic one, normally applied in engineering fields, but it is integrated with it in a complementary and parallel manner, in order to achieve the complete knowledge of the river system, result of an investigation multidisciplinary, aimed to define its physical state. Historical data (cartographic documents, digital terrain models—DTM, topographic surveys, aerial photographs, etc.) indicate clear-cut narrowing and deepening of the active channel, manifested after the Second World War and due to the considerable changes which affected the entire fluvial system (from the recovery of land for agriculture near the river, to sediments taken from its bed over the past few decades). The result is a state of great disequilibrium, which is shown in the passage from a braided morphology, observed in the 1950s, to a single channel with low sinuosity (wandering type). This type of morphology is certainly more unstable: in fact, the narrowing and deepening of fluvial sections provide a better hydraulic efficiency for the upstream, so the peak discharge does not overflow. Such peak discharge arrives downstream, next to the confluence with the Tiber River, not laminated, causing serious flooding effects. An increased vulnerability is observed in the last reach, in the areas pertaining to the river, where most of the industrial-economic activities are concentrated and where transportation infrastructures of nationwide importance (Italy’s most important motorway, the A1, and the Rome–Florence–Milan high-speed rail links) are located. The evolution of the Paglia (which is not substantially different from that of many streams in Italy and in general throughout Europe) is affected by severe anthropic constraints and intense exploitation of resources, which have produced a state of disequilibrium approaching irreversibility in an already vulnerable system. Finally, some suggestions for the correct management of the river system are pointed out, with the aim of mitigating the flood risk in the lower Paglia valley.
