Chinese IPO activity, pricing, and market cycles

We examine the activity, pricing, and market cycles of 1,380 Chinese A share IPOs over the period 1991-2005 and find initial underpricing of 238%. The government restrictions on IPO offer price and quota allocation cause pricing structural breaks and attribute more than half of initial underpricing. A multifactor model that includes firm's characteristics, excess demand for IPO shares, and the government restrictions explains cross-sectional initial returns, after controlling for industrial differences and stock market conditions. In addition, monthly IPO volume and average initial return are highly correlated. A VAR model indicates that initial return leads IPO volume by 6 months. © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009.