Migration and Financial Crisis A Quantitative and Structural Analysis of Diversion of Migration Flows

This paper analyzes the impact of the financial and economic crisis on migration within Europe and towards Germany. The crisis has triggered a diversion of migration flows from the new EU Member States to prospering countries such as Germany rather than a large increase of migration from the mainly affected countries. Novel estimation procedures, which consider systematically conditions in alternative destinations, show that the overwhelming share of the migration surge in Germany can be attributed to the deterioration of economic conditions in alternative destinations. Furthermore, micro data from the new IAB-SOEP migration sample demonstrate that the share of individuals who did not immigrate from their birth countries in all arrivals has significantly increased since the begin of the crisis. The share of individuals, who have been non-employed before their arrival in Germany, has not increased in the course of the crisis. However, average education levels of new arrivals have declined.