Low probability, high impact: the implications of a break-up of China for carbon dioxide emissions

被引：0
作者：
Richard S. J. Tol
机构：
[1] University of Sussex,Department of Economics
[2] Vrije Universiteit,Institute for Environmental Studies
[3] Vrije Universiteit,Department of Spatial Economics
来源：
Climatic Change | 2013年 / 117卷
关键词：
Capita Income; Energy Intensity; Carbon Dioxide Emission; Carbon Intensity; Monte Carlo Analysis;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
The transition from autocracy to democracy may lead a country to break-up. The break-ups of the USSR and Yugoslavia led to sharp falls in the level of emissions (while pre- and post-crisis trends are similar). If something like that would happen in China, an event with an unknown but small probability, projected emissions would fall by 50 % or more. The effect of a break-up on emissions in 2050 is larger than the difference between the SRES scenarios.
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页码：961 / 970
页数：9
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