Relationship between global mean sea-level and global mean temperature in a climate simulation of the past millennium

被引:0
作者
Hans von Storch
Eduardo Zorita
Jesús F. González-Rouco
机构
[1] GKSS Research Centre,
[2] KlimaKampus,undefined
[3] Depto. de Astrofśica y CC. Atmósfera,undefined
[4] U. Complutense,undefined
来源
Ocean Dynamics | 2008年 / 58卷
关键词
Global sea-level; Temperature; Last millennium; Climate simulation; Climate change;
D O I
暂无
中图分类号
学科分类号
摘要
The possibility of using global mean near-surface temperature, its rate of change or the global mean ocean heat-flux as predictors to statistically estimate the change of global mean sea-level is explored in the context of a long climate simulation of the past millennium with the climate model ECHO-G. Such relationships have recently been proposed to by-pass the difficulty of estimating future sea-level changes based on simulations with coarse-resolution climate models. It is found that, in this simulation, a simple linear relationship between mean temperature and the rate of change of sea level does not exist. A regression parameter linking both variables, and estimated in sliding 120-year windows, varies widely along the simulation and, in some periods, even attains negative values. The ocean heat-flux and the rate-of-change of mean temperature seem to better capture the rate-of-change of sea level due to thermal expansion.
引用
收藏
页码:227 / 236
页数:9
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