Climate change in northern Patagonia: critical decrease in water resources

被引：0
作者：
Pessacg Natalia
Flaherty Silvia
Solman Silvina
Pascual Miguel
机构：
[1] Instituto Patagónico para el Estudio de los Ecosistemas Continentales (IPEEC-CCT CENPAT CONICET),
[2] Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia San Juan Bosco,undefined
[3] Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA),undefined
[4] DCAO/FCEN,undefined
[5] Instituto Patagónico para el Estudio de los Ecosistemas Continentales (IPEEC-CCT CENPAT CONICET),undefined
来源：
Theoretical and Applied Climatology | 2020年 / 140卷
关键词：
Climate change; Water yield impact; Patagonian basins; CORDEX models; InVEST model;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
The current study presents an assessment of the impact of climate change on water yield, one of the main hydrological ecosystem services, in northern Patagonia. The outputs of regional climate models from the CORDEX Project for South America were used to drive the InVEST water yield model. CORDEX regional climate models project for the far future (2071–2100) an increase in temperature higher than 1.5 °C and a precipitation decrease ranging from − 10 to − 30% for the study area. The projected warmer and dryer climate emerges as a robust signal based on model agreement and on consistent physical drivers of these changes. Moreover, both the projected increase in evapotranspiration and the decrease in precipitation contribute to a strong decrease in water yield of around − 20 to − 40% in the headwaters of northern Patagonian watersheds. Comparison of the results in the two basins reveals that the land cover may be considered a buffer of water yield changes and highlights the key role of protected areas in reducing the vulnerability of water resources to climate change.
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页码：807 / 822
页数：15
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