Combining Opinion Surveys with Time-Series Data to Forecast the Japanese Economy

被引：0
作者：
Cheng Hsiao
Zhongyun Zhao
机构：
[1] University of Southern California,
[2] Los Angeles and National Taiwan,undefined
[3] University,undefined
[4] Taipei Merck-Medco Managed Care,undefined
[5] LLC,undefined
来源：
The Japanese Economic Review | 2000年 / 51卷
关键词：
C32;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
We explore the usefulness of combining opinion surveys with time-series data to forecast Japanese economy. We demonstrate that the businessmen’s judgemental variables might summarize contemporaneous information beyond that of actual series. The combined models do yield substantially more accurate one-period or multi-period-ahead forecasts and can predict the turning points better than pure time-series models.
引用
收藏
页码：155 / 169
页数：14
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