Assessment of the first consensus prediction on climate change

被引:0
作者
Frame D.J. [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Stone D.A. [3 ,4 ,5 ,6 ]
机构
[1] NZ Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University Wellington, Wellington 6012
[2] Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford
[3] Department of Physics, University of Oxford
[4] Climate Systems Analysis Group, Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701
[5] Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Oxford University Centre for the Environment
[6] Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720
基金
美国海洋和大气管理局;
关键词
D O I
10.1038/nclimate1763
中图分类号
学科分类号
摘要
In 1990, climate scientists from around the world wrote the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It contained a prediction of the global mean temperature trend over the 1990-2030 period that, halfway through that period, seems accurate. This is all the more remarkable in hindsight, considering that a number of important external forcings were not included. So how did this success arise? In the end, the greenhouse-gas-induced warming is largely overwhelming the other forcings, which are only of secondary importance on the 20-year timescale. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.
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页码:357 / 359
页数:2
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