Back to the Future: Applying a Current Geodemographic Classification to Historic Data to Produce Trend-Based Population Projections

A novel approach is described to developing population projections for minority groups for whom information used in traditional approaches is not directly available. Geodemographic assessment is a powerful tool for simplifying and interpreting complex patterns; but fixed classifications have rarely been used to compare and contrast population characteristics found in consecutive decennial censuses and establish trends for the future. This paper describes an innovative projection methodology, using an existing geodemographic classification and standard census outputs, that addresses and overcomes three challenges: the application of a geodemographic classification to a minority group – the Jewish residents of England and Wales – across multiple points in time; analysis of changes in that population between the 2001 and 2011 censuses, by geodemographic class; and the development of a projection based on these recent observed trends. The approach adopted specifically allows for temporal changes in the influence of population characteristics. The balance between the impact of births, deaths and migration on area / class population over time is determined and, after consideration of future fertility and mortality levels, used to develop class-by-class population projections for Anglo-Jewry and an overall projection for 2021 and 2031. The analysis indicates that there will be material differences between the demographic futures of the areas in which the various classes are found, and predicts a reversal in the numerical decline of the Jewish population that has prevailed over the last half century. As a result, the projections raise significant policy implications; additionally, the approach could be applied to other groups and other places.