Estimation of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides in the Sierra Madre Oriental, northeastern Mexico

Landslides induced by prolonged rainfalls are frequent mass movements along the northeastern portion of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico, causing significant damage to infrastructure. In this work, we have studied the connection between rainfall and landslides in the Santa Rosa Canyon, a catchment located in the northeastern Mexico. A landslide database triggered by major storms and hurricanes that have hit the region over the past 30 years was analyzed. A total of 92 rainfall events in the Santa Rosa Canyon were studied to determine the amount of precipitation needed to trigger shallow landslides. For each event the duration (D, in hours) and the cumulated rainfall event (E, in mm) were determined by using historical rainfall data from weather stations located near the study area. We have proposed an ED threshold for rainfall-induced landslides with durations 0.5 < D < 120 hours to address the conditions that trigger these events in the study area. On analyzing the obtained threshold, it has been established that almost 60 mm of a daily rainfall accumulation is required to trigger shallow landslides in the study area. This estimation is consistent with other calculations made for areas close to the Santa Rosa Canyon. Finally, we validated the predictive capability of the threshold with a different set of rainfall data that did not result in landslides performing a straightforward receiver operating characteristic analysis. A good approach was obtained, especially for rainfall events with daily measurements. Results could be used as input information in the design of a landslide early warning system for the northeastern Mexico, and replicated for other landslide prone areas in the region.