Analysis of formation and forecast of spring snowmelt flood runoff in forest and forest-steppe basins of Siberian rivers

Popov’s infiltration-capacitive model of the spring runoff, including the computation of the runoff losses due to evaporation in the period of snow melting and losses due to evaporation and absorption in the period of exhaustion of the sheet inflow into the channel net, is used. Equations to forecast the spring snowmelt flood runoff, taking account of the frozen soil melting, are derived. The method of estimation of their parameters on the base of the joint use of linear regression and optimization methods is realized. It is demonstrated that factors of the autumn moistening and freezing of soils of basins in the beginning of winter influence the spring runoff losses. The integrated index of the initial state of the basin, taking account of mentioned factors, is proposed.