Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: effects of lockdown and medical resources

被引：0
作者：
Gui-Quan Sun
Shi-Fu Wang
Ming-Tao Li
Li Li
Juan Zhang
Wei Zhang
Zhen Jin
Guo-Lin Feng
机构：
[1] North University of China,Department of Mathematics
[2] Shanxi University,Complex Systems Research Center
[3] Qilu Children’s Hospital of Shandong University,Department of Children’s Medical Laboratory Diagnosis Center
[4] Taiyuan University of Technology,School of Mathematics
[5] Shanxi University,School of Computer and Information Technology
[6] North University of China,Science and Technology on Electronic Test and Measurement Laboratory
[7] Yangzhou University,College of Physics Science and Technology
[8] China Meteorological Administration,Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center
来源：
Nonlinear Dynamics | 2020年 / 101卷
关键词：
COVID-19; Transmission dynamics; Lockdown; Medical resources;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
Due to the strong infectivity of COVID-19, it spread all over the world in about three months and thus has been studied from different aspects including its source of infection, pathological characteristics, diagnostic technology and treatment. Yet, the influences of control strategies on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 are far from being well understood. In order to reveal the mechanisms of disease spread, we present dynamical models to show the propagation of COVID-19 in Wuhan. Based on mathematical analysis and data analysis, we systematically explore the effects of lockdown and medical resources on the COVID-19 transmission in Wuhan. It is found that the later lockdown is adopted by Wuhan, the fewer people will be infected in Wuhan, and nevertheless it will have an impact on other cities in China and even the world. Moreover, the richer the medical resources, the higher the peak of new infection, but the smaller the final scale. These findings well indicate that the control measures taken by the Chinese government are correct and timely.
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页码：1981 / 1993
页数：12
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