Crisis in Urban Water Systems during the Reconstruction Period: A System Dynamics Analysis of Alternative Policies after the 2003 Earthquake in Bam-Iran

Quick restoration of critical infrastructure systems, such as water, electrical power, natural gas, and transportation systems, are essential for rapid and effective post disaster recovery and reconstruction process. A number of previous studies have assessed vulnerability of infrastructure systems to various hazards such as earthquakes, but seldom have the impacts of post disaster policies been considered. In its assessment of the water system in post disaster situation after Bam earthquake, this paper examines the impacts of various reconstruction as well as water management policies on the system failure in operation in terms of the ability of Bam urban water system to meet increased demand trends. Adopting a system dynamics modeling approach and the concept of viability loops, the paper will show that in order to minimize further crisis in the water system during the reconstruction period stricter water management policies need to be considered.