A long short-term memory-fully connected (LSTM-FC) neural network for predicting the incidence of bronchopneumonia in children

Bronchopneumonia is the most common infectious disease in children, and it seriously endangers children’s health. In this paper, a deep neural network combining long short-term memory (LSTM) layers and fully connected layers was proposed to predict the prevalence of bronchopneumonia in children in Chengdu based on environmental factors and previous prevalence rates. The mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and Pearson correlation coefficient (R) were used to detect the performance of the deep learning model. The values of MSE, MAE, and R in the test dataset are 0.0051, 0.053, and 0.846, respectively. The results show that the proposed model can accurately predict the prevalence of bronchopneumonia in children. We also compared the proposed model with three other models, namely, a fully connected (FC) layer neural network, a random forest model, and a support vector machine. The results show that the proposed model achieves better performance than the three other models by capturing time series and mitigating the lag effect.