Effect of thermal environment on the temporal, spatial and seasonal occurrence of measles in Ondo state, Nigeria

We investigated the temporal and spatial dynamics, as well as the seasonal occurrence of measles in Ondo state, Nigeria, to better understand the role of the thermal environment in the occurrence of the childhood killer disease measles, which ranks among the top ten leading causes of child deaths worldwide. The linkages between measles and atmospheric environmental factors were examined by correlating human-biometeorological parameters in the study area with reported clinical cases of measles for the period 1998–2008. We also applied stepwise regression analysis in order to determine the human-biometeorological parameters that lead to statistical changes in reported clinical cases of measles. We found that high reported cases of measles are associated with the least populated areas, where rearing and cohabitation of livestock/domestic animals within human communities are common. There was a significant correlation (P < 0.01) between monthly cases of measles and human-biometeorological parameters except wind speed and vapour pressure. High transmission of measles occurred in the months of January to May during the dry season when human thermal comfort indices are very high. This highlights the importance of the thermal environment in disease demographics since it accounted for more than 40% variation in measles transmission within the study period.