Earthquake Forecasting Based on Multi-State System Methodology

被引：0
作者：
A. Karagrigoriou
A. Makrides
T. Tsapanos
G. Vougiouka
机构：
[1] University of the Aegean,Department of Mathematics
[2] University of Cyprus,Department of Mathematics and Statistics
[3] Aristotle University of Thessaloniki,Department of Geology
来源：
Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability | 2016年 / 18卷
关键词：
Earthquake genesis; Earthquake predictions; Multi-state system; Reliability theory; Seismic zones; Weibull distribution; Transition intensities; Transition probabilities;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
This paper deals with earthquake long term predictions based on multi-state system methodology. As a reference we consider the South America case which was examined (Tsapanos, Bull Geol Soc Gr XXXIV/4:1611–1617, 2001) in the light of the Markov model, in order to define large earthquake recurrences. In this work we make the first attempt to describe seismic zoning data as data of a multi-state system (MSS) and explore earthquake genesis by evaluating intensity rates and transition probabilities between zones using various probabilistic models. For this purpose we incorporate into the procedure discussed in Tsapanos (2001) the effect, via the underlying distribution, of sojourn times between transitions.
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页码：547 / 561
页数：14
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