Heterogeneous impacts of financial development on carbon emissions: evidence from China’s provincial data

The effect of financial development on carbon emissions is a hot topic. Although some researches study the heterogeneous impacts of financial development on carbon emissions at the country level, few paper has investigated their heterogeneous relations within the same country. This paper, applying geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), studies the spatial–temporal heterogeneity of the impacts of financial development on carbon emissions across China’s 30 provinces from 2003 to 2017. The results show that financial development proxied by bank credit indicators curbs carbon emissions in most provinces most of the time, while that proxied by stock market indicator exhibits nonlinear relationships in most provinces, such as U-shaped, inverse U-shaped, and inverse N-shaped. The paper concludes first that financial development proxied by different indicators may exert varied impacts on carbon emissions. Second, the impact of financial development on carbon emissions shows great heterogeneity among different provinces and different years: it may be curbing or increasing, and even it is curbing, its curbing effects differ greatly across provinces and years. Third, the impact of financial development on CO2 is not always monotonic; instead, it may be nonlinear. Regional segmentation of financial markets may explain the heterogeneity. Some policy suggestions are also given.