Near Real-Time Optimization of Multi-Reservoir during Flood Season in the Fengman Basin of China

This study aims to develop a multi-objective optimization model in a multi-reservoir system during flood season using Numerical Weather Predictions (NWPs) outputs (short forecast). The optimization model was coupled with the Water and Energy Budget-based Distributed Hydrological Model that was used to forecast the reservoir inflows. The model was forced by 8-day lead time global deterministic NWPs by Japan Meteorological Agency. The reservoir objective function was established by considering the reservoir and upstream safety, downstream safety and future water use. The model was applied to the Baishan-Fengman multi-reservoir system of Northeast China. The results have demonstrated the model with high efficiency in optimizing reservoir objectives for all of the reservoirs. The sensitivity of the system to lead time and decision time were investigated. With the decreasing of lead time, the dam release peaks decrease and the end water levels increase. This is mainly due to the fact that the model with longer lead time needs to keep storage capacity for detected floods during long lead time period. The variation amplitude of dam releases and water levels decrease with the increasing of decision time due to the smoothing of floods and dam releases during long decision period. The model is easy to operate and is able to be coupled with other hydrological models or earth system models.