Modelling climate change impacts on regional net primary productivity in Turkey

This study projects and models the terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) considering the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios of Turkey using remote-sensing-based biogeochemical modelling techniques. Changes in annual NPP between 2000–2010 and 2070–2080 were projected with the biogeochemical ecosystem model NASA-Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA). A multi-temporal data set, including 16-day MODIS composites with a spatial resolution of 250 m, was used within the CASA model. The 5th Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC presented several scenarios for RCPs named RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 that laid the foundation for the future climate projections. The futuristic NPP modelling was based on the assumptions of maintaining CO2 level in the range of 421 to 936 ppm and a rise in temperature from 1.1 to 2.6 °C. The NPP in Turkey averaged 1232 g C m2 year−1 as per the model results. Considering 2000–2010 as the baseline period, the NPP was modelled within the range of 9.6 and 316 g C m2 year−1. Modelled average NPP was 1332.4 g C m2 year−1 per year between 2061 and 2080. The forest productivity was also estimated to be increased up to 113 g C m−2 year−1 under the climate change scenarios. However, there were minor differences in the projected average NPP under the baseline period covering years from 2000 to 2080 from those under RCPs. It appeared that variation in temperature and precipitation as a result of climate change affected the terrestrial NPP. The regional environmental and socio-economic consequences of climate change on diverse landscapes such as Turkey were properly modelled and analysed to understand the spatial variation of climate change impacts on vegetation. Changes in NPP imply that forests in Turkey could be carbon sinks in the future as their current potential that would profile Turkey’s climate mitigation. This is one of the pioneering studies to estimate the future changes of regional NPP in Turkey by integrating various spatial inputs and a biogeochemical model.