Supervised machine learning algorithms for predicting student dropout and academic success: a comparative study

Utilizing a dataset sourced from a higher education institution, this study aims to assess the efficacy of diverse machine learning algorithms in predicting student dropout and academic success. Our focus was on algorithms capable of effectively handling imbalanced data. To tackle class imbalance, we employed the SMOTE resampling technique. We applied a range of algorithms, including Decision Tree (DT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), as well as boosting algorithms such as Gradient Boosting (GB), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), CatBoost (CB), and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LB). To enhance the models' performance, we conducted hyperparameter tuning using Optuna. Additionally, we employed the Isolation Forest (IF) method to identify outliers or anomalies within the dataset. Notably, our findings indicate that boosting algorithms, particularly LightGBM and CatBoost with Optuna, outperformed traditional classification methods. Our study's generalizability to other contexts is constrained due to its reliance on a single dataset, with inherent limitations. Nevertheless, this research provides valuable insights into the effectiveness of various machine learning algorithms for predicting student dropout and academic success. By benchmarking these algorithms, our project offers guidance to both researchers and practitioners in their choice of suitable approaches for similar predictive tasks. © The Author(s) 2024.