Trend and long-range correlation characteristics analysis of runoff in upper Fenhe River basin

被引：0
作者：
Xuehua Zhao
Xu Chen
Qiang Huang
机构：
[1] Taiyuan University of Technology,College of Water Resources Science and Engineering
[2] Xi’an University of Technology,State Key Laboratory Base of Eco
来源：
Water Resources | 2017年 / 44卷
关键词：
upper reaches of the Fen River basin; empirical mode decomposition; Mann-Kendall method; rescaled range analysis; detrended fluctuation analysis;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
In order to explore long-term evolution rule and future trend of runoff time series, and exactly detect its tendency and long-range correlation characteristics, runoff data covering 1952–2012 from 3 stations across the upper Fenhe River basin were analyzed. The moving average method, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method and Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend test method were simultaneously applied to analyze the trend characteristics firstly. Then Rescaled Range analysis (R/S) and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) methods were employed to research the long-range correlation characteristics and length of non-periodic cycle of hydrological time series, they can systematically detect and overcome non-stationarity at all time scales. Finally, predict the future trend by combining the trend characteristics with the long-range correlation characteristics and length of non-periodic cycle. The results illustrate the annual runoff series is non-linear, non-normal time series, and have 10 years non-periodic cycle length and noticeable descending trend. This descending trend will continue in a period time of future.
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页码：31 / 42
页数：11
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