Trend and long-range correlation characteristics analysis of runoff in upper Fenhe River basin

被引：0
作者：
Xuehua Zhao
Xu Chen
Qiang Huang
机构：
[1] Taiyuan University of Technology,College of Water Resources Science and Engineering
[2] Xi’an University of Technology,State Key Laboratory Base of Eco
来源：
Water Resources | 2017年 / 44卷
关键词：
upper reaches of the Fen River basin; empirical mode decomposition; Mann-Kendall method; rescaled range analysis; detrended fluctuation analysis;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
In order to explore long-term evolution rule and future trend of runoff time series, and exactly detect its tendency and long-range correlation characteristics, runoff data covering 1952–2012 from 3 stations across the upper Fenhe River basin were analyzed. The moving average method, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method and Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend test method were simultaneously applied to analyze the trend characteristics firstly. Then Rescaled Range analysis (R/S) and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) methods were employed to research the long-range correlation characteristics and length of non-periodic cycle of hydrological time series, they can systematically detect and overcome non-stationarity at all time scales. Finally, predict the future trend by combining the trend characteristics with the long-range correlation characteristics and length of non-periodic cycle. The results illustrate the annual runoff series is non-linear, non-normal time series, and have 10 years non-periodic cycle length and noticeable descending trend. This descending trend will continue in a period time of future.
引用
收藏
页码：31 / 42
页数：11
相关论文
共 111 条
[1]  
Apsite E.(2013)Changes in Latvian river discharge regime at the turn of the century Hydrol. Res. 44 554-569
[2]  
Rudlapa I.(2007)An evaluation of statistical models for downscaling precipitation and their ability to capture long-term trends Int. J. Climatol. 27 649-665
[3]  
Latkovska I.(2011)Toward a robust method for subdaily rainfall downscaling from daily data Water Resour. Res. 47 1-18
[4]  
Elferts D.(2013)Detecting abrupt change of Streamflow at Lintong station of Wei River Math. Probl. Eng. 2013 1-9
[5]  
Benestad R.E.(2009)A cluster-optimizing regression-based approach for precipitation spatial downscaling in mountainous terrain J. Hydrol. 375 578-588
[6]  
Benestad R.E.(2014)A criterion for the determination of optimal scaling ranges in DFA and MF-DFA Physica A 397 17-30
[7]  
Hanssen-Bauer I.(1999)A new view of nonlinear water waves: The Hilbert Spectrum Annu. Rev. Fluid. Mech. 31 417-457
[8]  
Forland E.J.(2013)Detecting runoff variation of the mainstream in Weihe River J. Appl. Math. 2013 1-8
[9]  
Beuchat X.(2011)Assessment of future runoff trends under multiple climate change scenarios in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA Hydrol. Process 25 258-277
[10]  
Schaefli B.(2006)Long-term persistence and multifractality of precipitation and river runoff records J. Geophys. Res. 111 1-13
12345678910