An empirical relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions in an ecological civilization demonstration area of China based on the STIRPAT model

To understand the complex relationship and influencing mechanisms between urbanization and carbon emissions, the impacts and differential effects of urbanization and population on carbon emissions in an ecological civilization demonstration area of Jiangxi Province, China, were analyzed using the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model. Moreover, scenario analysis methods were applied to define nine development scenarios to predict future carbon emissions in Jiangxi. The research results indicate that (1) in terms of the spatial and temporal patterns, carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province are spatially characterized as higher in northern and western Jiangxi, balanced in northeastern and central Jiangxi, and lower in southern Jiangxi. (2) Regarding the directions of the spatial and temporal patterns, carbon emissions in Jiangxi vary unevenly. Carbon emissions in the outer peripheral area increase notably. The center of the standard deviational ellipse shifts to the northeast by approximately 4.11°, and the overall trend of its spatial pattern changes from northeast–southwest to east–west. (3) Regarding the influencing factors, for every 1% change in population, the economy, technology, and urbanization, carbon emissions increase by 3.2085%, 3.5673%, 0.5232%, and 1.7377%, respectively. There exists an inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship between economic factors and carbon emissions. From the horizontal perspective, the coefficient of elasticity of the sample containing developed-region sample is significantly lower than those of the total sample and the sample containing underdeveloped-region. (4) Scenario analysis revealed that a low population growth rate, high per capita GDP growth rate, and low energy intensity growth rate effectively control future carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province. When formulating carbon emissions reduction policies, consideration should be given to the maintenance of an appropriate population size, economic structure optimization, cleaner production technology development and regional differences.